In spite of his knee injury, will the Cleveland Browns renew Nick Chubb’s contract? See what the experts think will happen.
Ahead of the 2024 season, Nick Chubb has a cap hit of $15.8 million. There’s no denying that he’s worth that to the Cleveland Browns — when he’s healthy. The concern is that he’s coming off a serious knee injury that required two separate surgeries. Browns predicted to do the unexpected with Nick Chubb. Find out what the experts predict.
Chubb tore his ACL and MCL in Week 2, and since both needed to be fixed, there’s a chance he won’t be ready for action in Week 1 of the new season. Because of that, some NFL analysts speculated that he would be asked to accept a pay reduction. But that’s not what Aaron Schatz believes will happen.
Instead, the standout running back might be signed to an extension by the Browns, according to ESPN Insider’s scenario analysis. Although he acknowledges that this appears to go against their analytical approach, he also expresses the belief that Chubb is one of the few running backs who is useful based on analytics.
Schatz projected in an ESPN Insider piece that the Browns will sign Chubb to an extension that will allow them to keep him until the 2024 season while also lowering his salary charge to help the Browns go under the number, despite doubts about his ability to recover from a knee injury. “A large running back contract from the analytically astute Browns may surprise some, but Chubb is one of the few running backs who actually has an impact, according to sophisticated statistics. (For instance, he leads the NFL in rushing yards above expectation since 2021 with 597, a statistic at which he consistently performs well.)
Extending Nick Chubb is risky, but could be the Browns best move
Making this move does have some solid logic behind it. Currently, the Browns are nearly $20 million over the salary cap and it will take a few moves to get under that number. From there, they need to free up as much space as they can to make moves in free agency as well as sign their draft picks.
If Chubb’s contract was extended by a few years, maybe they could save seven or eight million dollars. Nevertheless, given that Chubb has already experienced two significant knee injuries, there is obviously a risk involved. He sustained his most recent injury while still a college student in 2015, but he recovered well, making him a viable wager. That also matters because he was nine years younger.
Given that Andrew Berry has expressed his desire for Chubb to continue being the team’s rock player, this may ultimately be the decision they choose. It’s crucial in this situation to give him time to recover and not try to return too soon.
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